Recurring short-term and expanding airspace closures in the Middle East and neighbouring regions

Compared to 2025, the airspace situation in the Middle East—specifically around Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf States—has deteriorated drastically once again in 2026. The previous military conflict in June 2025 lasted only twelve days, whereas the conflict in 2026 has been ongoing for months. The airspace situation around Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf States will not return to normal in the foreseeable future. A return to the pre-war status is unrealistic following the attacks of March 2026.

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Consequences:

• Continued near-permanent airspace closure over Iran.

• Overcrowding of the few remaining transit corridors (particularly the Caucasus Corridor and the Southern Bypass).

• Airlines must carry out frequent rerouting and dynamic schedule adjustments.

• Rising operational costs (fuel, crew limitations, maintenance cycles).

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Rising number of hybrid disruptions in European airspace

The Russian use of hybrid warfare is expected to be continued and intensified.

Based on the trends from 2025–26, the following is expected:

• Continued frequent drone incidents at or near airports in Europe.

• Use of disposable drones (high deniability, limited options for intervention).

• Additional balloons and unmanned aerial objects in the Baltic region.

• GPS jamming and spoofing as the "new normal".

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Escalating Risks: Activism, AI-Based Deception, and Insider Threats

The combination of geopolitical conflict and increasingly powerful AI tools increases the risk of unconventional threats:

• An increase in activism at airports, particularly by pro-Palestinian or anti-war groups; copycat incidents are expected.

• Deepfake-based social engineering attacks targeting aviation industry employees.

• Greater complexity of insider threats.

• Misuse of AI by extremists for recruitment, operational planning, or identity manipulation.