Hybrid warfare by Russia
What is hybrid warfare?
The term “hybrid warfare” is defined very broadly and therefore difficult to delimit the scope analytically. Essentially, it refers to a form of conflict that is not waged using military or kinetic means. Through hybrid warfare, state actors seek to threaten and destabilize societies. To this end, they employ a wide variety of methods, ranging from widespread disinformation to targeted acts of sabotage.
Is it equivalent to state terrorism?
The primary aim of terrorism is to spread fear and terror. Hybrid warfare, however, pursues broader objectives. While it involves actions that could in themselves be classified as terrorist, hybrid warfare itself should not be equated with terrorism as a strategy.
Can we really call it a war?
Article 51 of the United Nations Charter clearly defines the threshold for war and provides a party under attack with legitimate means of self-defence. Hybrid warfare operates in a grey area below this threshold, which is why it is often impossible to identify the perpetrator beyond a reasonable doubt (plausible deniability of events or actions). Russia is known for deploying so-called disposable agents, which in turn contributes to plausible deniability from a Russian perspective.
To what extent is civil aviation affected by Russia's hybrid warfare?
In Europe, civilian air traffic was disrupted on multiple occasions in the autumn of 2025 due to concentrated drone sightings near airports. Drone sightings and the resulting disruptions to flight operations have been a well-known and recurring phenomenon since the incidents at London Gatwick (December 2018) and London Heathrow (January 2019). However, available data indicate that there has been a clear increase in the number of incidents (see graph). At the same time, Lithuania has also experienced frequent disruptions to flight operations since the autumn of 2025 due to smuggling balloons originating from Belarus.
These drone incidents are a prime example of actions carried out in the context of hybrid warfare: It is impossible to conclusively determine who is responsible, since in most cases the drone could not be intercepted nor the drone pilot identified. In this context, Russia's interest in the intelligence gained from drone footage (for espionage purposes) is likely only of secondary concern. Instead, the goal is likely to test the authorities’ response.
Besides the psychological impact, operational disruptions caused by drone sightings in the vicinity of an airport typically have “only” operational consequences; however, these can incur enormous costs for various companies. In addition, acts of sabotage that have directly affected aviation have come to light in recent years. For instance, since the summer of 2024, there have been incidents involving incendiary devices transported by various shipping service providers. In these incidents, enormous collateral damage to the aviation industry was taken as an acceptable consequence. Even in these cases, clear attribution is not possible, as presumably disposable agents were employed.
What developments can we expect?
Over the next twelve months, further actions of this kind, likely originating from Russia, can be expected. Disposable agents are likely to continue to be used in these operations. As long as disruption can be achieved, this type of hybrid warfare is in Russia’s interest. The goal must therefore be to strengthen the resilience and redundancy of civil aviation security systems so that such actions can be quickly detected and effectively countered.